A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
